The Moderate Majority: How Biden Can Secure Victory by Courting the Center
To overcome a tight race against Trump, President Biden needs to abandon his base-focused strategy and instead appeal to the moderate, centrist voters who hold the balance of power.
The Story:
The upcoming 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a close and consequential contest, with President Biden facing an uphill battle to secure a second term. Despite Biden's 2020 victory, the current political landscape suggests a tighter race, with the president trailing in key swing states. One of the critical factors that could determine the outcome is the swing voter demographic. These are the moderate, centrist voters who often shift between the parties from election to election. According to the analysis, these swing voters in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona will be the key to victory.
According to, Mark Penn was a pollster and an adviser to President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton from 1995 to 2008, the simple math of elections highlights the disproportionate power of swing voters. In a tight race, even a small number of swing voters switching sides can swing the outcome. For example, if a race is tied 5-5, just one swing voter can tip the balance to 6-4. To overcome a narrow deficit, Biden would need to either turn out hundreds of thousands of additional base voters or persuade a smaller number of swing voters to support him. "The simple power of this math — which drove the campaigns of Mr. Clinton (with his message about "building a bridge to the 21st century"), George W. Bush ("compassionate conservatism") and Barack Obama ("hope and change") — has been obscured, undoubtedly by base groups like unions or PACs that have a vested interest in maintaining their sway and power."
Additionally, in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, Biden could win by persuading moderate Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries to cross party lines and vote for him. These voters, who identify as moderate and centrist, could be a crucial target for the Biden campaign as they seek to secure their support and tip the balance in key swing states.
The election will also be ultimately determined by "double-haters" - those who are skeptical of both Trump and Biden. These double-haters tend to be moderate, educated, and suburban, and are overrepresented in swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. To win, Biden needs to reach these swing state voters with credible messengers who speak to their concerns, like Republicans who previously voted for Trump but refuse to do so again.
However, the Biden campaign appears to be focused on shoring up support among its base, with policy shifts on issues like Israel, taxes, and social programs. While maintaining a strong base is important, the articles argue that Biden must also reach out to these crucial swing voters if he wants to prevail in 2024.
The View:
Biden’s campaign has made a critical miscalculation by prioritizing the Democratic base over courting swing voters in battleground states. This strategy may energize the party’s core supporters, but it fails to acknowledge the outsized influence of the moderate, centrist voters who hold the key to victory. The simple math of elections is clear: swing voters hold disproportionate power, and even small shifts in their support can tip the scales. Yet, instead of adopting a pragmatic, centrist message that appeals to these crucial voters, Biden has been pulled to the left, doubling down on policies that may resonate with his base but alienate the moderates.
This is a dangerous gamble, as the 2024 race is shaping up to be a rematch between Biden and Trump. The former president, despite his well-documented failings, still enjoys significant support, and many voters are dissatisfied with Biden’s performance on issues like inflation, immigration, and crime. To overcome this, Biden must do more than simply remind voters of Trump’s unsuitability for office; he must present himself as a viable, centrist alternative that can address the concerns of swing voters.
Successful past presidents, such as Clinton, Bush, and Obama, have understood the power of swing voters and crafted messages that resonated with them. Biden would be wise to follow their example, abandoning the temptation to pander to his base and instead focusing on policies and rhetoric that appeal to the moderates in key battleground states. The 2024 election will be a test of Biden’s political acumen and his ability to adapt to the shifting political landscape. If he hopes to secure a second term, he must recognize the simple math of elections and prioritize the swing voters who hold the balance of power6. Anything less will likely result in a defeat that could have long-lasting consequences for the Democratic party and the country as a whole.
TLDR:
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a close contest, with President Biden facing an uphill battle to secure a second term.
One of the critical factors that could determine the outcome is the swing voter demographic - moderate, centrist voters who often shift between the parties.
According to analysis, these swing voters in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona will be the key to victory.
The simple math of elections highlights the disproportionate power of swing voters, where even a small number switching sides can tip the balance.
To overcome a narrow deficit, Biden would need to either turn out hundreds of thousands of additional base voters or persuade a smaller number of swing voters to support him.
Biden could win by persuading moderate Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries to cross party lines and vote for him.
- The election will also be determined by "double-haters" - those who are skeptical of both Trump and Biden, who tend to be moderate, educated, and suburban.
Biden's campaign appears to be focused on shoring up support among its base, but the article argues that he must also reach out to these crucial swing voters to prevail in 2024.
Successful past presidents have understood the power of swing voters and crafted messages that resonated with them, which Biden should emulate to secure victory.
Insights From:
Opinion | The Simple Math That Could Swing the Election to Biden - The New York Times
A conservative strategist on how Joe Biden can win - Economist