Presidential Debate Fallout: Agonized Allies and Rejoicing Adversaries

The U.S. presidential debate has left European allies deeply concerned about the future of trans-Atlantic relations and security, as Russia and China seek to capitalize on the political chaos.

Jul 03, 2024

The Facts:

The Russian government, led by President Vladimir Putin, and the Chinese government, led by President Xi Jinping, have been intently observing the recent presidential debate in the United States. Russia and China view the crisis in American leadership during the presidential debate as an opportunity to undermine U.S. global influence and promote their own authoritarian models.

In the aftermath of the debate, Putin's spokesman Dmitri Peskov claimed that the Russian president did not bother to watch the event, dismissing it as an "internal affair" of the United States. However, the extensive coverage and commentary on Russian state-owned media suggest otherwise. According to the reports, Russian media outlets portrayed the candidates as "small children from the nursery" and predicted that life in America would become "one never-ending game of golf." Russian state media portrayed the debate as a display of childish bickering and predicted that the United States would descend into a "never-ending game of golf," with the country "lurching from one big hole to the next."

Similarly, China's state media briefly summarized the debate, focusing on the insults and barbs exchanged between the candidates, while quoting an anonymous American voter who expressed concerns about the state of the U.S. democracy. This response from Russia and China is part of a long-standing campaign by these authoritarian regimes to undermine the credibility of American democracy. As stated in a joint statement signed by Putin and Xi in February 2022, they claim to have "deep democratic traditions" and criticize certain unnamed countries (referring to the United States) for attempting to impose their political systems on others, thereby "undermining democracy and discarding its spirit and true values."

The debacle of the presidential debate has provided fresh ammunition for this narrative. From the perspectives of Moscow and Beijing, the critical portrayal of the debate is not about who won or lost but rather to demonstrate that the upcoming American elections in November will be a "farce," presenting voters with two equally unpalatable options. Putin and Xi are seeking to reorder the world in a way that amplifies their countries' international influence at the expense of the U.S. by engendering uncertainty about American global leadership. As Constanze Stelzenmüller, director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, noted, "There is a non-trivial incentive for the Kremlin to gain ground before the Trump administration comes in and they have to at least pretend to negotiate." She added, "Iran, too, may seek to position itself for advantage ahead of a potentially more confrontational approach from Trump."

President Biden's poor debate performance against former President Trump sparked concerns among European allies about the future of U.S. foreign policy and support for Ukraine. European diplomats and officials are worried that a second Trump term could threaten trans-Atlantic ties and European security. As Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski noted, "It's important to manage one's ride into the sunset," drawing a reference to the decline of the Roman Empire and the potential impact on transatlantic relations. The further away from Washington and the further to the right politically, the less likely European leaders are to feel that a return of Trump would be problematic.

Moreover, world leaders are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the next U.S. presidential election, prompting them to recalibrate their strategies to appeal to Trump's "zero-sum view of the world." This perception has led European leaders, for instance, to take steps to "Trump-proof" Europe by developing an EU-wide defense industrial strategy and considering the appointment of an EU defense commissioner. Additionally, a second term for President Biden poses its own security risks, as it remains unclear whether he has the stamina to lead in an increasingly uncertain and dangerous world. This concern is echoed by Norbert Röttgen, a top ally of former German chancellor Angela Merkel, who wrote on Twitter, "This night will not be forgotten. The Democrats have to rethink their choices now. And Germany must prepare at full speed for an uncertain future. If we don't take responsibility for European security now, no one will."

The tactics employed by Russia and China to sow doubts about America's global leadership and the viability of its democratic system have had some success in the short term. Their portrayal of the presidential debate as a spectacle of dysfunction has fed anxiety among U.S. partners and allies, who are now questioning America's vision for the world and its ability to maintain its role as the shining city upon a hill.

The View:

However, the narrative being pushed by Russia and China is flawed and fails to capture the true essence of American democracy. While the disturbing sight of the presidential debate may have raised concerns, it also sparked a broad political conversation within the United States – the kind of open and critical discourse that would never be possible in China or Russia, where the leaders remain entirely insulated from criticism and face no meaningful opposition.

The crisis in American leadership that was evident during the presidential debate was a gift for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as it allowed them to portray the U.S. as a declining power and promote the narrative of America's imminent collapse. Leaders who calculate they might get friendlier treatment from a Trump presidency, such as Putin and Netanyahu, may have less incentive to cooperate with a lame-duck Biden White House. U.S. rivals like Iran may seek to position themselves for advantage ahead of a potentially more confrontational approach from a Trump administration.

In contrast to the aging autocrats in Moscow and Beijing, the American political system is characterized by institutional constraints, accountability, and genuine debates about the country's direction. Despite the current challenges, the resilience of the American system is evident in its ability to bounce back from even its deepest crises, such as the civil rights struggles, the Watergate scandal, and the economic turmoil of the 1970s. While the United States may be facing a low moment, it is important to recognize that this is not the first time the country has confronted such challenges. History has shown that resilience and the capacity for renewal are fundamental to the American experience. The very fact that the presidential debate sparked a robust public discourse is a testament to the strength and vitality of American democracy.

As the global community watches the unfolding of the American political landscape, it is crucial to reject the cynical and misleading narratives propagated by Russia and China. These authoritarian regimes, led by aging leaders, are themselves plagued by deep-seated problems, from the disastrous consequences of Putin's criminal war in Ukraine to the devastating impact of Xi's mishandled COVID-19 policies. Their attempts to capitalize on America's temporary difficulties are not only hypocritical but also serve to obscure the genuine challenges and opportunities facing the United States. In the face of these adversaries' attempts to undermine American leadership, it is vital that the United States stands firm in its commitment to democratic values and its vision for the world. The American people must not be swayed by the propaganda and misinformation disseminated by Russia and China, but rather, they must engage in the critical debates and decision-making processes that will shape the country's future.

TLDR:

The Russian and Chinese governments are closely monitoring the US presidential debate and seeking to capitalize on the perceived crisis in American leadership.
Russian and Chinese state media have portrayed the debate as a display of childish bickering and predicted the descent of the US into a "never-ending game of golf."
This narrative is part of a long-standing campaign by these authoritarian regimes to undermine the credibility of American democracy.
The poor debate performance of President Biden has sparked concerns among European allies about the future of US foreign policy and support for Ukraine.
World leaders are increasingly convinced that Donald Trump will win the next US presidential election, prompting them to recalibrate their strategies to appeal to Trump's "zero-sum view of the world."
Russia and China's attempts to sow doubts about America's global leadership and the viability of its democratic system have had some short-term success.
However, the resilience of the American political system is evident in its ability to bounce back from even its deepest crises, and the robust public discourse sparked by the debate is a testament to the strength and vitality of American democracy.
It is crucial to reject the cynical and misleading narratives propagated by Russia and China, which serve to obscure the genuine challenges and opportunities facing the United States.