Iran's Election Boycott Signals Profound Youth Discontent
The Islamic Republic of Iran faces a crisis of legitimacy as the younger generation, armed with access to the outside world, boycotts elections and demands radical change.
The Facts:
Gen Z Iranians are disillusioned with successive presidents who have failed to improve their lives, leading to mass protests and brutal crackdowns by the government. Many young Iranians are frustrated by the nepotism, systemic corruption, and the black market economy that benefits the elites, while the average Iranian struggles with high inflation and poverty. The recent elections to replace Raisi,the former Iranian President and a cleric loyal to the Supreme Leader, died accidentally in May, saw a majority of Iranians rejecting the system, with a historically low voter turnout of just 40% in the first round and around 50% in the runoff. Videos from across the country showed empty polling stations, as Iranians boycotted the elections, citing their "opposition to the overall system of the Islamic Republic."
The breadth of the election boycott appears to have put the regime on the back foot, with the Supreme Leader taking longer than usual to deliver his customary message congratulating the people. The younger generation of Iranians see no bright future for themselves, as the situation keeps getting worse, and they blame their parents and grandparents for ushering in an Islamic republic and continuing to accept the current situation.
The reform movement in Iran has been eviscerated by the hard-line backlash, and reformers are now leftists stripped of lofty aspirations. The so-called reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, emerged victorious, but this was seen by many as a mere cosmetic change, as both he and his hard-line opponent were approved by the Guardian Council, which is dominated by Khamenei's allies.
The Islamic Republic's alliance with Russia and China has strengthened its position in the region, and it is now the most important power in the Middle East due to the successes of its "axis of resistance." Khamenei is unlikely to concede this progress or change his tone to enable diplomatic outreach to the West.
The youth of Iran, particularly the "Gen Z" cohort, are at the forefront of this growing discontent. Having grown up with access to the outside world through satellite dishes and VPNs, they have witnessed the failure of successive presidents to improve their lives, while the elites continue to enjoy lavish lifestyles. The state's violent crackdown on protests, such as the 2019 "Bloody November" incident, has further alienated this generation, who now see the entire system as irredeemable.
Pezeshkian, despite being labelled a "reformist," is unlikely to satisfy the demands of the disgruntled Iranian youth. The elected institutions in the Islamic Republic, such as the presidency, serve as a safety valve for public grievances, but they have little real power. Pezeshkian's presidency may be a way for Khamenei to recalibrate the system and address some public discontent. However, the regime has tightened its grip on power, with the supreme leader having the ultimate say on domestic and foreign policies. Even if Pezeshkian attempts to implement some changes, such as loosening internet restrictions or improving relations with the West, he will be constrained by the realities of the theocratic system.
The View:
It is clear that the Islamic Republic of Iran is facing a profound crisis of legitimacy, with the country's youth leading a growing movement of dissent and civil disobedience against the ruling clerical establishment. The brazen act of defiance by the young woman in Mashhad is a stark warning to the supreme leader, Khamenei, that the system he and his allies have built is crumbling from within. The dismal voter turnout in the recent elections, with millions of Iranians boycotting the polls, is a resounding rejection of the regime and its façade of democracy. Khamenei's attempts to maintain control by vetting and approving the candidates have only served to further alienate the population, particularly the younger generation, who see the entire system as irreparably corrupt and authoritarian.
The reform movement in Iran has been effectively suppressed, and the category of "reformers" no longer exists. The incoming president, Masoud Pezeshkian, offers some hope of reprieve from the hard-line government, but he is not a true reformer. Rather, he is a more moderate figure who will have limited maneuvering room due to the power of the supreme leader. Pezeshkian's rhetoric and actions during the campaign and in his first days as president suggest that he is loyal to the supreme leader and the Islamic Republic's authoritarian structure, despite his more moderate image.
The rise of "Gen Z" Iranians, who have grown up with greater exposure to the outside world, has fueled their disillusionment with the empty promises of successive presidents and the lavish lifestyles of the elites. The state's brutal crackdown on protests has only further strengthened their resolve to see the end of the Islamic Republic as it currently stands. Pezeshkian's victory, while touted as a "reformist" triumph, is unlikely to satisfy the demands of the Iranian people. As long as Khamenei and his hardline allies maintain their stranglehold on power, any meaningful change or democratization will remain elusive. The system is simply too entrenched, and the supreme leader too determined to preserve his authoritarian control.
The regime's alliance with Russia and China, and its growing regional influence, may provide it with a temporary buffer against domestic unrest. However, the simmering anger and resentment of the Iranian people, especially the younger generation, will continue to simmer, and it is only a matter of time before the next wave of mass protests and civil disobedience erupts. The Islamic Republic's days may be numbered, as the people's desire for freedom and self-determination becomes increasingly unstoppable.
TLDR:
Gen Z Iranians are disillusioned with successive presidents who have failed to improve their lives, leading to mass protests and brutal crackdowns.
Iranians are frustrated by nepotism, systemic corruption, and the black market economy that benefits the elites, while the average Iranian struggles with high inflation and poverty.
The recent elections saw a majority of Iranians rejecting the system, with a historically low voter turnout, as Iranians boycotted the elections.
The reform movement in Iran has been eviscerated by the hard-line backlash, and reformers are now leftists stripped of lofty aspirations.
The Islamic Republic's alliance with Russia and China has strengthened its position in the region, but the youth of Iran, particularly the "Gen Z" cohort, are at the forefront of growing discontent.
The elected institutions in the Islamic Republic, such as the presidency, serve as a safety valve for public grievances, but they have little real power.
The regime has tightened its grip on power, with the supreme leader having the ultimate say on domestic and foreign policies, limiting the ability of the new president to enact meaningful change.
Know More:
Will a Reformist Victory in Iran's Election Weaken the Regime?
Why Iran's new reformist president will be unlikely to effect change
Insights From:
Iran’s Gen Z Is Still Waiting for the Revolution - The New York Times
Meet Iran’s New Boss, Same as the Old Boss - Wall Street Journal