Anticipating the 2024 Presidential Debate

The 2024 presidential debate offers a pivotal opportunity for the candidates to move beyond the divisive politics of the past and present a compelling vision for the future of America.

Jun 27, 2024

The Facts:

The presidential debate Thursday evening is a crucial moment in the 2024 campaign, as both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have significant records to defend. The debate rules, which include muting microphones to minimize interruptions, aim to create a more controlled and focused environment. However, the strategy of muting microphones may backfire, as Trump is known for his persistent interruptions, which could make Biden appear even more confused if he is seen reacting to inaudible remarks.

The debate offers both opportunities and risks for both candidates, as they will attempt to provoke each other and capitalize on any mistakes or humanizing moments. Biden will face the challenge of convincing skeptics that he has the physical and mental capacity to serve a second term, as his occasional mumbling and loss of train of thought have become a concern. Trump, on the other hand, can focus on validating the public's feelings of discontent and drawing comparisons between his record and Biden's. Trump's past successes, such as the Abraham Accords, keeping Putin in check, and holding China accountable, could work in his favor. However, he must also avoid coming across as unhinged or enraged, as many independent and suburban Republican voters do not want another four years of constant drama.

Biden will likely aim to goad Trump by focusing on the January 6th riot, his felony conviction in New York, and his claim that the 2020 election was stolen. Trump risks hurting himself if he takes the bait and should instead pivot to Biden's record and focus on reassuring swing voters.

Turnout in 2024 may not be as high as in 2020, and candidates need to win back supporters from four years ago. Polls show a close contest, with majorities holding negative views of Trump and Biden. Democratic constituencies, including young and minority voters, are not particularly motivated to vote for Biden. The Gen-Z are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than other generations. A Pew Research Center survey found 62% of adults under 30 say the nation cannot solve major problems, the highest share of any age group.

The 2024 campaign has been heavily focused on the past, with both candidates dwelling on their previous tenures. The debate offers an opportunity for the candidates to shift the focus to the future and present a compelling vision for their second term. However, the rules and the candidates' personalities make it uncertain whether the debate will be elevated and substantive, or merely a continuation of the confrontational and personal attacks that have become increasingly common in recent presidential debates.

The View:

The presidential debate Thursday evening is a crucial moment in the 2024 campaign, and the candidates must seize the opportunity to present a compelling and plausible vision for their second term. The focus on the past has been deeply disappointing, as elections should be about the future and what the candidates can offer to improve the lives of Americans. Neither Donald Trump's message of "retribution and revenge" nor Joe Biden's attempt to make the election a referendum on Trump's past tenure are inspiring to voters. Both Biden and Trump have a responsibility to move beyond grievance politics and drama, and instead focus on the substantive issues facing the country.

Ultimately, the winner of this debate will be the candidate who can effectively convey that they genuinely care about the country and the world their grandchildren will inherit. This debate is an opportunity for the candidates to rise above the divisiveness and personal attacks that have become all too common in recent elections. It is time for them to offer a vision that is as positive as the world's leading democracy and economy has a right to be, and to back it up with serious ideas to change the country for the better, even if only in increments.

TLDR:

The presidential debate on Thursday is a crucial moment in the 2024 campaign, with both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump having significant records to defend.
The debate rules, including muting microphones, aim to create a more controlled and focused environment, but this strategy may backfire as Trump is known for his persistent interruptions.
Both candidates face challenges and opportunities in the debate, with Biden needing to convince skeptics of his physical and mental capacity, and Trump needing to avoid coming across as unhinged or enraged.
Turnout in 2024 may not be as high as in 2020, and candidates need to win back supporters from four years ago, as polls show a close contest with majorities holding negative views of both Trump and Biden.
The 2024 campaign has been heavily focused on the past, and the debate offers an opportunity for the candidates to shift the focus to the future and present a compelling vision for their second term.
The winner of the debate will be the candidate who can effectively convey that they genuinely care about the country and the world their grandchildren will inherit, and offer a positive and substantive vision for the future.