Allying with Riyadh: Securing the Gulf or Undermining American Values?

The Biden administration is poised to forge a strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about the agreement's potential to fuel regional instability and undermine U.S. principles.

Jun 09, 2024

The Facts:

The Biden administration is on the cusp of entering a bilateral agreement with Saudi Arabia that would provide the kingdom with significant security guarantees and assistance in developing its civilian nuclear program. This prospective deal is being described as a "strategic alliance agreement" and is modeled loosely on the U.S. mutual security pact with Japan.

The proposed agreement would commit the U.S. to helping defend Saudi Arabia if it were attacked, in exchange for which Riyadh would grant Washington access to its territory and airspace to protect U.S. interests and regional partners. The treaty, known as the Strategic Alliance Agreement, must obtain a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate and is unlikely to gain support without being linked to a Saudi commitment to normalize ties with Israel.

The deal is also intended to bind Saudi Arabia closer to the U.S. by prohibiting China from building bases in the kingdom or pursuing security cooperation with Riyadh. This agreement would make Saudi Arabia the only Arab state with a formal U.S. defense treaty, elevating its regional standing and further entrenching the U.S. military role in the Middle East. In contrast, Israel is not a treaty ally but has received assurances to maintain a "qualitative military edge" in the region.

The broader deal is also expected to include U.S. support for Saudi Arabia's development of a civilian nuclear program with uranium enrichment capabilities, a highly sensitive issue that still needs to be finalized.

The View:

The existing U.S. support for Saudi Arabia already deters Iranian aggression, and a new defense agreement would reward Saudi Arabia's reckless behavior under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The authoritarian Saudi regime's history of destabilizing military adventures, human rights abuses, and disregard for international norms should disqualify it from receiving such lavish support from the U.S. Rather than enhancing regional security, this deal is more likely to fuel an escalating nuclear arms race and renewed Saudi aggression, potentially drawing the U.S. into further entanglements in the volatile Middle East.

The deal could increase the risk of a nuclear arms race in the Persian Gulf by stoking Iranian fears and providing Saudi Arabia with components for nuclear weapons. The agreement would raise Iran's threat perception and increase its incentives to develop a nuclear weapon, leading to a potential nuclear arms race in the region. This could have far-reaching consequences for both U.S. strategic interests and global stability.

The agreement would not effectively check the rising influence of China in Saudi Arabia and the wider Arab world, and would reinforce the prevailing order where the U.S. bears the costs of maintaining the security of the Persian Gulf while China operates as a free rider. The Biden administration's willingness to sacrifice its professed commitment to human rights and democratic values in pursuit of this dubious geopolitical objective will undoubtedly undermine its credibility on the global stage and make it harder to rally international support for vital causes such as the defense of Ukraine against Russian aggression.

Ultimately, this reckless and ill-conceived agreement represents a betrayal of the American people, who have consistently expressed their opposition to U.S. involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen and their skepticism towards the kingdom's human rights record. By forging ahead with this deal, the Biden administration risks deepening divisions within the Democratic Party and jeopardizing its own political future, all while eroding the principles of the liberal world order it claims to uphold.

TLDR:

The Biden administration is considering a bilateral agreement with Saudi Arabia that would provide the kingdom with significant security guarantees and assistance in developing its civilian nuclear program.
The proposed "Strategic Alliance Agreement" would commit the U.S. to defending Saudi Arabia if it is attacked, in exchange for access to Saudi territory and airspace.
The deal is intended to bind Saudi Arabia closer to the U.S. and limit China's influence in the region, but would elevate Saudi Arabia's regional standing and further entrench the U.S. military role in the Middle East.
The agreement could include U.S. support for Saudi Arabia's development of a civilian nuclear program with uranium enrichment capabilities, raising concerns about a potential nuclear arms race in the Persian Gulf.
Critics argue that the authoritarian Saudi regime's history of human rights abuses and destabilizing military adventures should disqualify it from receiving such extensive U.S. support, which could undermine the Biden administration's credibility on human rights and global leadership.
The deal could increase the risk of a nuclear arms race in the region by fueling Iranian fears and providing Saudi Arabia with components for nuclear weapons, with far-reaching consequences for U.S. strategic interests and global stability.
The agreement is unlikely to effectively check China's rising influence in Saudi Arabia and the wider Arab world, and could reinforce the prevailing order where the U.S. bears the costs of maintaining regional security while China operates as a free rider.